Little to no market movement / Prices remain unchanged, demand shows no signs of recovery / Only slight upturn in order activity expected for October

PE: In the course of the latest negotiations, producers were unable to factor in the small increase of EUR 5/t in the cost of the ethylene. With most PE grades, the surplus in supply that was triggered above all by substantial imports from Asia and the US led to falling prices. The packaging segment, however, provided a glimmer of hope, which in some cases has been generating solid ordering activity thanks to food and pharmaceuticals. For October, there are signs of greater price stability. On the one hand, the feedstock rolled over and was fixed at its previous month’s level. On the other, there was some optimism in the PIE panel discussions that demand could pick up again, albeit with a delay. Because of the C2 rollover, experts expect October’s negotiations to focus less on a single month and more on the entire year 2026. Negotiated volumes and sales in the final quarter are likely to stay modest, so some producers may try to shift the discussion to next year in hopes of securing the sales they are aiming for. At the upcoming K plastics trade fair in Düsseldorf, the mood is expected to be rather subdued – most players do not anticipate a significant and sustained recovery in demand before the second half of 2026.

PP: By the middle of the month, nothing remained of producers’ initial intention to raise prices. As demand showed little sign of picking up, the previous month’s special deals were increasingly carried over into the negotiations for September. Producers prioritised volume over price. As a result, despite the rollover for the precursor propylene, there were often downward adjustments into the mid-double-digit range. The market remained oversupplied. This was mainly due to the continued flow of imports, and even the production problems of one producer – who declared FM during the month – did not change anything. According to figures from the European statistics authority Eurostat, imports into the EU27 already amount to around 990,000 t for the current year. Few processors felt any urgency to purchase materials. Even after the summer holidays, the order situation remained less than stellar. In most cases, only the bare essentials were purchased – and that really wasn’t much. The automotive industry failed to make a comeback after the summer break. At least there were a few sparse impulses from the project business of the E&E segment. The C3 contract for October was fixed at the previous month’s level. As the market fundamentals are unlikely to change much, prices are expected to remain stable or decline slightly. There is still a hint of optimism among processors. A small number of panellists expect demand to increase again in October. This means that the level could “improve” from catastrophic to only poor.

PVC: Prices for PVC remained more or less stable in September. While a number of European producers initially asked for increases of up to EUR 50/t, based on the slight rise in the ethylene contract (up EUR 5/t), these ambitions came to nothing due to weak demand. Import volumes from abroad ensured that supply was more than sufficient, despite pronounced cutbacks at European plants, while the construction industry and automotive sector were once again unable to stimulate demand. Most transactions thus remained at rollover level. In some cases, prices were even adjusted slightly downwards. The mood is likely to be subdued in October at the world’s leading K trade fair. No one is expecting any momentum that could prompt hopes of a pickup in demand again. Many PVC producers have significantly scaled back their involvement in this event on account of their economically difficult situation. Nevertheless, initial talks for 2026 will still be conducted at the trade fair. Certain producers who missed out on volume allocations to some extent this year will most likely strive to play a more prominent role in contract negotiations. Against this background, prices will trend sideways at best up to the end of the year, reflecting the ethylene contract, while price reductions are also likely for a number of agreements.

Styrenics: Prices keep sliding further down. Styrenics prices declined for the sixth month in a row in September 2025. As in previous months, declining feedstock costs and weak demand set the course for further discounts. At the beginning of the month, producers were still trying to retain some of the decreased costs in order to restore margins a little – albeit in vain. Soon, the price reductions for polystyrene and EPS were generally adjusted to the extent of the styrene reduction (down EUR 46/t). With slightly more variance in the agreements, ABS prices also largely followed the cost trend. For all styrenics, however, there were also purchase packages with non-generalisable special conditions from suppliers who wanted to increase sales volumes. Overall, demand remained very sluggish. The post-holiday pickup in demand was significantly lower than hoped and expected – positive stimuli are still nowhere to be seen. The complicated situation is not likely to change in October, either. Order activity remains slack and the styrene reference for October declined again (down EUR 51/t). In the wake of this, prices for styrenics will likely continue to trend downwards for a seventh consecutive month.

PET: The European PET market limped through September 2025. Struggling European producers were driven to the ropes in light of weak demand. Considerable concessions extending into the triple-digit range were necessary in order to sell anything at all. While imports were available, they failed to have a stimulating effect. Market conditions are unlikely to change any time soon. The PX reference price for September was only settled late, with the feedstock quoted at EUR 765/t – a further reduction of EUR 20/t. As a result, downward price pressure persists. Widespread triple-digit quotations would come as no surprise.

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